A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
